MODEL VERDICT
Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (ACRE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $5.71 | CURRENT | -12.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield 32 industry peers | $9.24 | +61.8% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 34 industry peers | $6.97 | +22.1% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 28 analyst estimates | $1.42 | -75.1% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Sales 33 industry peers | $1.66 | -70.9% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $8.00 | +40.2% | 100% | 73 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.67 | 12.38 | 9.66 | 18.05 | 4.12 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.15 | 22.75 | 4.09 | 24.63 | 11.35 |
| P/FCF | 11.46 | 12.02 | 9.02 | 14.85 | 2.20 |
| P/FFO | 9.73 | 9.18 | 3.17 | 17.39 | 6.32 |
| P/TBV | 0.76 | 0.84 | 0.24 | 1.07 | 0.27 |
| P/AFFO | 12.18 | 12.70 | 6.23 | 17.60 | 5.70 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.75 | 0.84 | 0.24 | 1.07 | 0.27 |
| Div Yield | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.19 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 77.59 | 5.91 | 3.65 | 510.77 | 191.02 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates ACRE's fair value at $8.00 vs the current price of $5.71, implying +40.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $8.00 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $3.66 (P10) to $7.60 (P90), with a median of $5.09.
ACRE's current P/E of -8.9x compares to the industry median of 12.5x (23 peers in the group). This represents a -171.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.7x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
13 analysts cover ACRE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $8.92 (range: $3.75 — $16.00), implying +56.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (5), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ACRE.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.