MODEL VERDICT
TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. (TRTX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $8.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $8.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $8.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $8.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $8.07 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 6 REIT peers | $11.94 | +38.7% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Dividend Yield 6 industry peers | $11.91 | +38.3% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $12.18 | +41.5% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $9.47 | +10.0% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $10.74 | +24.7% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $8.76 | +1.7% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $10.29 | +19.6% | 100% | 90 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $7 | $8 | $9 | $10 | $11 |
| Conservative (7%) | $7 | $8 | $9 | $10 | $12 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $7 | $8 | $9 | $11 | $12 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $7 | $8 | $10 | $11 | $12 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.99 | 12.91 | 11.04 | 15.11 | 1.95 |
| EV/EBIT | 33.09 | 33.22 | 15.56 | 50.35 | 17.21 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.13 | 16.77 | 14.48 | 40.67 | 11.03 |
| P/FCF | 7.41 | 6.74 | 5.45 | 12.12 | 2.22 |
| P/FFO | 6.05 | 5.91 | 3.30 | 9.37 | 2.41 |
| P/TBV | 0.62 | 0.59 | 0.39 | 0.98 | 0.19 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.61 | 0.59 | 0.39 | 0.98 | 0.19 |
| Div Yield | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 0.15 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.23 | 4.31 | 1.70 | 10.07 | 3.51 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates TRTX's fair value at $10.29 vs the current price of $8.61, implying +19.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 90/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $10.29 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $7.07 (P10) to $10.00 (P90), with a median of $8.16.
TRTX's current P/E of 15.1x compares to the industry median of 16.6x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -9.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.0x over 4 years. Signal: Fair Value.
11 analysts cover TRTX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $10.00 (range: $10.00 — $10.00), implying +16.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (3), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 90/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: TRTX trades at the 7200th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (13.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TRTX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (27.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 100.0% to approximately $9. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.