Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$30.27
→
Intrinsic$93.05
+207%
$63.70$93.05$148.74
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests BRX could have 207% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $30, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 25%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $64 → Bull $149. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $114 | $123 | $133 | $143 |
| 10% | $80 | $86 | $93 | $100 |
| 12% | $61 | $66 | $71 | $76 |
| 14% | $50 | $53 | $57 | $61 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($149) offers 391% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($64) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year FFO Projection
Year 1$1.00B
Year 2$1.25B
Year 3$1.56B
Year 4$1.96B
Year 5$2.44B
Terminal$35.98B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base FFO$801.16MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses FFO per NAREIT standards. See FAQ below for full methodology.