MODEL VERDICT
Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $195.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $199.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $213.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $211.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $215.52 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 3 analyst estimates | $143.59 | -26.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 3 industry peers | $132.99 | -31.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $190.05 | -2.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $126.11 | -35.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $147.47 | -24.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 3 industry peers | $138.66 | -29.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 3 industry peers | $1916.37 | +881.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 3 industry peers | $1744.90 | +793.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $190.64 | -2.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 3 industry peers | $124.88 | -36.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $300.04 | +53.7% | 100% | 71 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 28× | 30× (Current) | 32× | 34× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $174 | $188 | $201 | $215 | $228 |
| Conservative (7%) | $179 | $192 | $206 | $220 | $234 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $184 | $199 | $213 | $227 | $241 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $190 | $205 | $220 | $234 | $249 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 36.41 | 31.86 | 11.17 | 80.00 | 25.97 |
| EV/EBIT | 26.24 | 23.84 | 10.13 | 36.83 | 11.10 |
| EV/EBITDA | 56.47 | 16.61 | 6.77 | 265.11 | 102.30 |
| P/FCF | 11.23 | 8.99 | 6.36 | 26.88 | 7.09 |
| P/FFO | 16.60 | 18.70 | 6.44 | 25.84 | 7.85 |
| P/AFFO | 25.38 | 27.57 | 7.48 | 48.82 | 15.68 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.53 | 8.44 | 2.41 | 8.76 | 3.58 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 0.22 | 0.04 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates CAH's fair value at $300.04 vs the current price of $195.24, implying +53.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 71/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $300.04 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $209.53 (P10) to $473.39 (P90), with a median of $310.70.
CAH's current P/E of 30.3x compares to the industry median of 29.5x (3 peers in the group). This represents a +2.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 36.4x over 5 years. Signal: Fair Value.
33 analysts cover CAH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $249.67 (range: $220.00 — $275.00), implying +27.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (15), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 71/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (18), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CAH.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.