MODEL VERDICT
Caris Life Sciences, Inc. (CAI) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Caris Life Sciences, Inc. (CAI)
Caris Life Sciences, Inc. (CAI) — Relative ValuationPeer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Caris Life Sciences, Inc. (CAI)
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $20.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $19.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $20.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $22.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $28.51 | Below threshold | -21.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 57 analyst estimates | $8.18 | -59.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 47 industry peers | $1.31 | -93.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 46 industry peers | $1.06 | -94.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 46 industry peers | $1.06 | -94.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 48 industry peers | $1.40 | -93.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $5.15 | -74.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $4.95 | -75.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 47 industry peers | $1.11 | -94.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $3.98 | -80.3% | 100% | 59 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates CAI's fair value at $3.98 vs the current price of $20.14, implying -80.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 59/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $3.98 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $2.11 (P10) to $4.61 (P90), with a median of $3.35.
CAI's current P/E of -6.3x compares to the industry median of 21.4x (48 peers in the group). This represents a -129.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
6 analysts cover CAI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $31.33 (range: $26.00 — $38.00), implying +55.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 59/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CAI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.