Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$301.40
→
Intrinsic$151.46
-50%
$102.15$151.46$249.58
Market implies 33% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 15% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $301, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (33%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $102 → Bull $250. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 11% | 13% | 15% | 17% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $188 | $204 | $221 | $240 |
| 10% | $129 | $140 | $151 | $164 |
| 12% | $98 | $106 | $115 | $124 |
| 14% | $79 | $85 | $92 | $99 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($250) with 18% growth, 8% discount rate
- Conservative 15% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($102) implies 66% downside at 12% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 33% growth expectations vs 15% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 50% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$1.82B
Year 2$2.09B
Year 3$2.40B
Year 4$2.75B
Year 5$3.15B
Terminal$49.96B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate14.7%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$1.59BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.