Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$43.73
→
Intrinsic$97.44
+123%
$66.60$97.44$155.95
Market implies 5% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests PEGA could have 123% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $44, the market prices in only 5% growth — below historical 25%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $67 → Bull $156. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $120 | $129 | $139 | $150 |
| 10% | $84 | $90 | $97 | $105 |
| 12% | $64 | $69 | $74 | $80 |
| 14% | $52 | $56 | $60 | $64 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($156) offers 257% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (5%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($67) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
Loading charts...
5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$631.53M
Year 2$789.42M
Year 3$986.77M
Year 4$1.23B
Year 5$1.54B
Terminal$22.69B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$505.23MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.