MODEL VERDICT
Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $108.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $105.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $102.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $100.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $92.13 | Pending | +11.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 44 analyst estimates | $64.46 | -40.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 49 industry peers | $122.51 | +13.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 43 industry peers | $10.31 | -90.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 37 industry peers | $108.43 | +0.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 42 industry peers | $13.35 | -87.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 38 industry peers | $107.35 | -0.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 48 industry peers | $180.67 | +66.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 48 industry peers | $178.72 | +64.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 43 industry peers | $10.31 | -90.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 37 industry peers | $113.26 | +4.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $74.54 | -31.2% | 100% | 74 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 122× | 134× | 146× (Current) | 158× | 170× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $94 | $103 | $112 | $122 | $131 |
| Conservative (7%) | $96 | $106 | $115 | $125 | $134 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $99 | $109 | $119 | $129 | $138 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $102 | $113 | $123 | $133 | $143 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 30.03 | 7.30 | 2.38 | 125.27 | 53.29 |
| EV/EBIT | 6.93 | 5.79 | 3.05 | 13.10 | 4.32 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.28 | 3.25 | 2.21 | 4.00 | 0.75 |
| P/FCF | 5.85 | 6.72 | 3.17 | 7.89 | 2.25 |
| P/FFO | 3.57 | 3.15 | 1.98 | 5.44 | 1.37 |
| P/TBV | 1.12 | 0.88 | 0.66 | 2.13 | 0.56 |
| P/AFFO | 8.00 | 9.50 | 2.60 | 10.07 | 3.14 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.10 | 0.84 | 0.66 | 2.13 | 0.58 |
| Div Yield | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.28 | 1.19 | 0.68 | 1.85 | 0.42 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates CHRD's fair value at $74.54 vs the current price of $108.37, implying -31.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $74.54 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $62.59 (P10) to $86.39 (P90), with a median of $74.54.
CHRD's current P/E of 146.4x compares to the industry median of 13.9x (43 peers in the group). This represents a +950.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 30.0x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
17 analysts cover CHRD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $123.56 (range: $99.00 — $151.00), implying +14.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (3), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CHRD trades at the 9770th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (30.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CHRD.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.