MODEL VERDICT
Clearfield, Inc. (CLFD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $29.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $30.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $29.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $27.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $27.16 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $31.10 | +5.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $13.99 | -52.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $39.53 | +34.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $12.84 | -56.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $65.42 | +122.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $84.41 | +186.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $81.56 | +177.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $40.04 | +36.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $38.45 | +30.6% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 37.00 | 41.00 | 13.40 | 57.43 | 17.27 |
| EV/EBIT | 31.25 | 32.64 | 11.14 | 45.58 | 13.59 |
| EV/EBITDA | 28.87 | 27.02 | 9.58 | 47.95 | 14.23 |
| P/FCF | 51.01 | 36.63 | 15.34 | 131.39 | 44.00 |
| P/FFO | 30.01 | 27.80 | 11.31 | 51.42 | 14.68 |
| P/TBV | 4.91 | 2.88 | 1.44 | 12.32 | 4.38 |
| P/AFFO | 37.59 | 42.65 | 14.45 | 56.54 | 15.99 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.47 | 2.50 | 1.39 | 11.21 | 3.97 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.71 | 2.72 | 1.62 | 8.27 | 2.26 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates CLFD's fair value at $38.45 vs the current price of $29.43, implying +30.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $38.45 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $27.53 (P10) to $51.43 (P90), with a median of $39.03.
CLFD's current P/E of -50.7x compares to the industry median of 99.9x (1 peers in the group). This represents a -150.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 37.0x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover CLFD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $43.00 (range: $41.00 — $45.00), implying +46.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (0), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CLFD.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.