MODEL VERDICT
The Vita Coco Company, Inc. (COCO) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $58.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $53.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $56.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $56.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $54.97 | Below threshold | +6.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $30.47 | -47.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 13 industry peers | $23.31 | -59.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 13 industry peers | $29.30 | -49.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $19.47 | -66.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 13 industry peers | $27.25 | -53.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $25.61 | -55.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 11 industry peers | $39.09 | -32.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $27.11 | -53.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 14 industry peers | $19.18 | -67.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 13 industry peers | $29.17 | -49.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $19.12 | -67.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $36.86 | -36.5% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 41× | 45× | 49× (Current) | 53× | 57× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $52 | $57 | $62 | $67 | $72 |
| Conservative (10%) | $54 | $59 | $64 | $69 | $74 |
| Base Case (15.1%) | $56 | $62 | $67 | $73 | $78 |
| Bull Case (20%) | $59 | $64 | $70 | $76 | $82 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 49.57 | 39.27 | 32.47 | 98.71 | 27.92 |
| EV/EBIT | 37.14 | 28.59 | 23.74 | 73.05 | 20.70 |
| EV/EBITDA | 52.47 | 27.14 | 22.21 | 153.11 | 56.50 |
| P/FCF | 44.57 | 52.20 | 14.14 | 67.39 | 27.43 |
| P/FFO | 44.73 | 38.60 | 29.43 | 79.84 | 20.43 |
| P/TBV | 7.57 | 7.74 | 5.78 | 9.82 | 1.78 |
| P/AFFO | 48.02 | 39.27 | 30.23 | 88.82 | 24.02 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.20 | 7.44 | 5.04 | 9.59 | 1.93 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.19 | 3.05 | 1.64 | 5.21 | 1.54 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates COCO's fair value at $36.86 vs the current price of $58.06, implying -36.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $36.86 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $26.68 (P10) to $46.53 (P90), with a median of $35.44.
COCO's current P/E of 48.8x compares to the industry median of 24.6x (13 peers in the group). This represents a +98.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 49.6x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
14 analysts cover COCO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $57.86 (range: $52.00 — $63.00), implying -0.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (5), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 11.7% is 4.2 percentage points above the 5-year average (7.5%), with a Z-score of +1.0σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$38. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that COCO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (7.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3480.0% to approximately $38. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.