MODEL VERDICT
Coursera, Inc. (COUR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $6.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $5.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $6.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $6.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $5.36 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $6.12 | -0.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $8.55 | +39.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $12.61 | +105.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $16.57 | +169.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $10.61 | +72.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $8.44 | +37.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $15.01 | +144.0% | 100% | 63 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 82.13 | 14.26 | 11.25 | 220.88 | 120.17 |
| P/TBV | 3.09 | 2.50 | 1.98 | 4.84 | 1.19 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.02 | 2.47 | 1.90 | 4.75 | 1.19 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.62 | 3.28 | 1.59 | 6.68 | 2.09 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates COUR's fair value at $15.01 vs the current price of $6.15, implying +144.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $15.01 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $7.48 (P10) to $28.45 (P90), with a median of $14.91.
COUR's current P/E of -19.8x compares to the industry median of 17.2x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -215.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
17 analysts cover COUR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $7.79 (range: $6.00 — $10.00), implying +26.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (7), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for COUR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.