Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (CRNX)
Valuation Overview•Is Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount to intrinsic cash flow value, implying pessimistic long-term market expectations.
Fragile underlying quality score of 44/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant profitability concerns.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside. The company currently dilutes shareholders to fund operations and growth rather than returning capital.
CRNX struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($53M) and minimal debt risk.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (17.6% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (-3020.3%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $10.7M | +640.7% | +17.6% | +155.3% | — | |
| EBITDA | -$139.2M | — | -45.4% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$127.8M | -55.9% | -41.6% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-1.23 | -34.1% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$125.5M | -67.0% | -48.6% | -43.9% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 98.9% | 95.3% | 97.2% | -8171.2% |
| Operating Margin | -3020.3% | -14958.5% | -11682.1% | -17114.5% |
| Net Margin | -2747.2% | -13370.9% | -10711.7% | -16425.8% |
| FCF Margin | -2321.7% | -10455.1% | -8418.1% | -13592.8% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $-1.22 | $-1.23 | -0.8% | ||
| Q1'26 | $-1.37 | $-1.29 | +5.8% | ||
| Q4'25 | $-1.27 | $-1.38 | -8.7% | ||
| Q3'25 | $-1.13 | $-1.23 | -8.8% | ||
| Q2'25 | $-0.99 | $-1.04 | -5.1% | ||
| Q1'25 | $-0.92 | $-0.88 | +4.3% | ||
| Q4'24 | $-0.91 | $-0.96 | -5.4% | ||
| Q3'24 | $-0.86 | $-0.94 | -9.3% |
Total return is +17.6% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -7.4%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -23.2% | -32.5% | — |
| 1Y | +17.6% | -7.4% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +21.5% | +1.9% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +11.1% | +0.7% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +3.9% | -9.8% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (CRNX) valuation, health, and returns.
Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. undervalued (implying +64.8% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $59.13)
Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $59.13 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $85.14 (implying +137.4% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 44/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 13.5 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -37.8%.
Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, Inc. does not return material capital to shareholders via dividends or share repurchases, electing to retain earnings to fund internal growth.
Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +640.7% 1Y revenue growth and -34.1% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +17.6%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 18 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 17% of recent quarters with a -1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +137.4% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, Inc. include: -42.2% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.11x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.