MODEL VERDICT
Cirrus Logic, Inc. (CRUS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $141.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $142.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $144.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $142.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $121.76 | Pending | +14.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 64 analyst estimates | $295.90 | +109.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 54 industry peers | $275.14 | +95.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 47 industry peers | $270.67 | +91.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 49 industry peers | $378.08 | +167.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $350.67 | +148.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 54 industry peers | $374.32 | +165.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 25 industry peers | $194.70 | +38.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 74 industry peers | $297.41 | +110.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 74 industry peers | $279.45 | +98.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 48 industry peers | $283.39 | +100.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 53 industry peers | $386.39 | +173.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $284.44 | +101.6% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $129 | $141 | $154 | $167 | $180 |
| Conservative (12%) | $134 | $147 | $161 | $174 | $187 |
| Base Case (17.8%) | $141 | $155 | $170 | $184 | $198 |
| Bull Case (24%) | $149 | $164 | $179 | $194 | $208 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.64 | 25.42 | 13.49 | 56.45 | 13.92 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.19 | 17.43 | 11.40 | 50.69 | 13.55 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.76 | 14.38 | 9.83 | 26.90 | 5.77 |
| P/FCF | 22.38 | 16.71 | 14.53 | 46.49 | 11.82 |
| P/FFO | 19.97 | 20.04 | 11.34 | 29.89 | 5.74 |
| P/TBV | 4.85 | 4.41 | 4.02 | 6.46 | 0.88 |
| P/AFFO | 22.55 | 23.17 | 12.16 | 36.72 | 7.55 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.50 | 3.36 | 2.75 | 4.45 | 0.66 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.39 | 3.45 | 2.47 | 4.28 | 0.72 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates CRUS's fair value at $284.44 vs the current price of $141.12, implying +101.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $284.44 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $228.55 (P10) to $312.16 (P90), with a median of $269.69.
CRUS's current P/E of 23.5x compares to the industry median of 45.1x (47 peers in the group). This represents a -47.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 27.6x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
22 analysts cover CRUS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $144.50 (range: $110.00 — $163.00), implying +2.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (5), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 20.5% is 6.2 percentage points above the 7-year average (16.9%), with a Z-score of +1.2σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$137. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CRUS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 290.0% to approximately $137. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.