MODEL VERDICT
CSX Corporation (CSX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $45.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $45.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $43.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $42.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $42.24 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $41.90 | -7.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $43.30 | -4.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $37.35 | -17.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $26.65 | -40.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $39.69 | -12.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $20.37 | -54.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $18.30 | -59.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $37.21 | -17.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $38.67 | -14.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $37.23 | -17.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $26.65 | -40.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $43.12 | -4.4% | 100% | 82 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 25× | 27× | 29× (Current) | 31× | 33× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $39 | $42 | $46 | $49 | $52 |
| Conservative (5%) | $40 | $44 | $47 | $50 | $53 |
| Base Case (5.1%) | $40 | $44 | $47 | $50 | $53 |
| Bull Case (7%) | $41 | $44 | $48 | $51 | $54 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.21 | 19.05 | 15.89 | 25.21 | 3.51 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.30 | 15.51 | 13.62 | 19.11 | 2.17 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.08 | 12.31 | 11.12 | 15.11 | 1.73 |
| P/FCF | 24.74 | 23.07 | 18.08 | 39.49 | 7.21 |
| P/FFO | 14.11 | 13.16 | 11.81 | 16.80 | 2.22 |
| P/TBV | 5.53 | 5.34 | 4.86 | 6.49 | 0.56 |
| P/AFFO | 27.27 | 23.87 | 19.04 | 53.50 | 11.96 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.38 | 5.25 | 4.86 | 6.28 | 0.50 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.22 | 4.79 | 4.31 | 6.77 | 1.02 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates CSX's fair value at $43.12 vs the current price of $45.09, implying -4.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $43.12 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $32.84 (P10) to $36.91 (P90), with a median of $34.87.
CSX's current P/E of 29.3x compares to the industry median of 24.3x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +20.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.2x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
46 analysts cover CSX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $43.08 (range: $30.00 — $50.00), implying -4.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (26), Hold (18), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CSX trades at the 6670th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (20.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CSX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.5σ, meaning margins are 1.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (39.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2720.0% to approximately $57. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.