Upside case
Bull case
$85+86.3%
CSX would need investors to value it at roughly 45x earnings — about 21x more generous than today's 24x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
CSX Corporation (CSX) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
46
analysts
26 bullish · 2 bearish · 46 covering CSX
Strong Buy
0
Buy
26
Hold
18
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$43
-5.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$40 – $85
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
46
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
24.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $84.7B
CSX price targets
Three scenarios for where CSX stock could go
Current
~$46
Confidence
56 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $46
Bear
$40
Base
$57
Bull
$85
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$57+25.7%
At 30x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$40-12.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push CSX down roughly 12% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
CSX Corporation
CSX · NASDAQIndustrialsRailroadsDecember year-end
CSX Corporation is a major freight railroad operator in the eastern United States, transporting goods across a 19,500-mile network. It generates revenue primarily from freight transportation fees—with merchandise (chemicals, agricultural products, automotive, etc.) making up about 60% of revenue, coal around 15%, and intermodal containers roughly 25%. The company's key advantage is its extensive, irreplaceable rail infrastructure—a natural monopoly with high barriers to entry—that connects key industrial and population centers east of the Mississippi River.
Market Cap
$84.7B
Revenue TTM
$14.2B
Net Income TTM
$3.0B
Net Margin
21.6%
CSX Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+0.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.44/$0.42
Revenue
$3.6B/$3.6B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.44/$0.42
Revenue
$4.5B/$3.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.39/$0.41
Revenue
$3.5B/$3.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.43/$0.39
Revenue
$3.5B/$3.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.44/$0.42 | +5.8% | $3.6B/$3.6B | -0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.44/$0.42 | +3.7% | $4.5B/$3.6B | +24.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.39/$0.41 | -5.1% | $3.5B/$3.5B | -0.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.43/$0.39 | +10.5% | $3.5B/$3.5B | -0.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$14.4B
+1.7% YoY
FY2
$14.5B
+0.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.81
+10.4% YoY
FY2
$1.94
+7.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$4.1B
FCF Margin: 29.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
CSX beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
CSX Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $13.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Total Merchandise
64.6%
-1.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Total Merchandise is the largest disclosed segment at 64.6% of FY 2025 revenue, down 1.1% YoY.
CSX Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $43 — implies -4.4% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
4.4%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CSX
29.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+17% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
CSX
29.6x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
+14% premium
vs CSX 5Y Avg P/E
Today
29.6x
vs
5Y Average
19.8x
+50% premium
Forward PE
24.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
+26%
Industrials
20.8x
+15%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
29.6x
S&P 500
25.2x
+17%
Industrials
25.9x
+14%
5Y Avg
19.8x
+50%
PEG Ratio
5.79x
S&P 500
1.75x
+231%
Industrials
1.59x
+264%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
17.8x
S&P 500
15.3x
+17%
Industrials
13.9x
+28%
5Y Avg
13.0x
+37%
Price/FCF
49.5x
S&P 500
21.3x
+132%
Industrials
20.6x
+140%
5Y Avg
25.7x
+92%
Price/Sales
6.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+92%
Industrials
1.6x
+278%
5Y Avg
5.0x
+20%
Dividend Yield
1.14%
S&P 500
1.88%
-39%
Industrials
1.24%
-8%
5Y Avg
1.29%
-11%
| Metric | CSX | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg CSX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 24.0x | 19.1x+26% | 20.8x+15% | — |
| Trailing PE | 29.6x | 25.2x+17% | 25.9x+14% | 19.8x+50% |
| PEG Ratio | 5.79x | 1.75x+231% | 1.59x+264% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.8x | 15.3x+17% | 13.9x+28% | 13.0x+37% |
| Price/FCF | 49.5x | 21.3x+132% | 20.6x+140% | 25.7x+92% |
| Price/Sales | 6.0x | 3.1x+92% | 1.6x+278% | 5.0x+20% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.14% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 1.29% |
CSX trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCSX Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
CSX generates $4.1B in free cash flow at a 29.2% margin — 10.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$14.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-0.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
37.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
33.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
21.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.64
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$4.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
29.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
10.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$670M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$18.7B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.5× FCF
~4.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
23.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.8%
Dividend
1.1%
Buyback
1.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.4B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.52
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
33.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.9B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCSX Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Economic Downturns
A prolonged period of weak industrial activity or a recession in North America can sharply reduce demand for the commodities and products CSX transports, leading to lower revenues and profitability.
High Risk
Coal Price Fluctuations
Declining global coal prices and reduced export demand directly cut a significant revenue stream for CSX, exposing the company to volatile commodity markets.
High Risk
Infrastructure Disruptions
Extreme weather events such as hurricanes and floods can damage CSX’s rail infrastructure, causing operational disruptions, higher costs, and service delays. Major construction projects, like the Howard Street Tunnel clearance, further constrain network capacity.
High Risk
Train Derailments & Safety Incidents
CSX has experienced multiple derailments, some involving hazardous materials, which raise safety concerns, trigger environmental damage, disrupt operations, and incur substantial financial penalties.
Medium
Debt Burden
CSX’s reliance on debt financing means a deterioration in financial condition could hurt credit ratings and limit access to capital, driving up borrowing costs and squeezing returns.
Medium
Environmental Liabilities
The company can be held liable for environmental damage from operations, including hazardous spills, with liabilities potentially extending to previously owned properties.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CSX Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Operational Efficiency Gains
CSX has boosted train velocity, cut terminal dwell times, and improved trip plan compliance, all of which enhance shipper satisfaction and lower costs. Technology and automation investments are driving further efficiency and reducing operational expenses, while safety metrics such as injury frequency and train accident rates have improved.
Strategic Infrastructure Expansion
Major projects like the Howard Street Tunnel expansion in Baltimore and the rebuilding of the Blue Ridge Subdivision are removing bottlenecks and enabling new services, including double‑stack intermodal. These upgrades increase network capacity and position CSX for future growth.
Diversified Revenue Base
CSX’s revenue comes from merchandise, intermodal, chemicals, automotive, and bulk commodities, providing resilience against sector headwinds. The company is actively attracting new businesses to its rail‑served properties to broaden its industrial footprint.
Financial Resilience & Shareholder Returns
Despite a modest revenue decline in 2025, CSX maintains healthy operating margins through cost discipline and efficiency initiatives. The firm continues to return capital via dividends and share buybacks, supporting the stock.
Economic Recovery Catalyst
As a bellwether for the U.S. economy, CSX stands to benefit from a rebound in manufacturing, consumer spending, and port volumes. Analysts project a gradual recovery in freight volumes as industrial production stabilizes and inventory restocking cycles resume.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CSX Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$45.58
52W Range Position
95%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$28.05
+62.5% from the low
52-Week High
$46.55
-2.1% from the high
1 Month
+9.88%
3 Month
+12.23%
YTD
+25.7%
1 Year
+62.3%
3Y CAGR
+12.7%
5Y CAGR
+5.9%
10Y CAGR
+18.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CSX vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
24.0x
vs 22.8x median
+5% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.7%
vs +3.9% median
-55% below peer median
Net Margin
21.6%
vs 27.2% median
-21% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CSX CSX CSX Corporation | $84.7B | 24.0x | +1.7% | 21.6% | Buy | -5.5% |
UNP UNP Union Pacific Corporation | $159.2B | 21.3x | +20.9% | 29.8% | Buy | +7.1% |
NSC NSC Norfolk Southern Corporation | $71.2B | 26.2x | +2.0% | 21.9% | Hold | +4.6% |
CP CP Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. | $77.2B | 22.8x | -2.2% | 27.2% | Buy | +7.0% |
CNI CNI Canadian National Railway Company | $68.6B | 14.0x | +3.9% | 27.2% | Hold | -10.3% |
WAB WAB Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation | $45.9B | 25.5x | +8.3% | 10.5% | Buy | +7.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CSX Dividend and Capital Return
CSX returns 2.8% annually — 1.14% through dividends and 1.6% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.6%
Dividend Yield
1.14%
Payout Ratio
33.6%
How CSX Splits Its Return
Div 1.14%
Buyback 1.6%
Dividend 1.14%Buybacks 1.6%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.52
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
21Y
3Y Div CAGR
9.1%
5Y Div CAGR
8.4%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.4B
Estimated Shares Retired
31M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.9B
At 1.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.14 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.52 | +8.3% | 2.1% | 3.5% |
| 2024 | $0.48 | +9.1% | 3.6% | 5.1% |
| 2023 | $0.44 | +10.0% | 5.0% | 6.3% |
| 2022 | $0.40 | +7.1% | 7.1% | 8.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsCSX Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is CSX Corporation (CSX) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
CSX Corporation (CSX) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 46 analysts covering the stock, 26 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 18 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $43, implying -5.5% from the current price of $46. The bear case scenario is $40 and the bull case is $85.
02What is the CSX stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CSX is $43 based on 46 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $50 (+9.7% from today), and the low-end target is $30 (-34.2%). The base case model target is $57.
03Is CSX Corporation (CSX) stock overvalued in 2026?
CSX trades at 24.0x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for CSX Corporation (CSX) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CSX in 2026 are: (1) Economic Downturns — A prolonged period of weak industrial activity or a recession in North America can sharply reduce demand for the commodities and products CSX transports, leading to lower revenues and profitability. (2) Coal Price Fluctuations — Declining global coal prices and reduced export demand directly cut a significant revenue stream for CSX, exposing the company to volatile commodity markets. (3) Infrastructure Disruptions — Extreme weather events such as hurricanes and floods can damage CSX’s rail infrastructure, causing operational disruptions, higher costs, and service delays. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is CSX Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CSX will report consensus revenue of $14.4B (+1.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.81 (+10.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $14.5B in revenue.
06When does CSX Corporation (CSX) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for CSX is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does CSX Corporation generate?
CSX Corporation (CSX) generated $4.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 29.2%. CSX returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.1% yield) and share repurchases ($1.4B TTM).