MODEL VERDICT
CuriosityStream Inc. (CURI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $0.15 | -95.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $0.89 | -72.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $0.35 | -89.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $1.53 | -53.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $2.03 | -38.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $0.24 | -92.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 3 industry peers | $0.79 | -76.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $0.74 | -77.5% | 100% | 66 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 13.98 | 3.16 | 1.03 | 60.84 | 26.23 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.11 | 1.44 | 0.39 | 16.30 | 6.84 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.14 | 1.63 | 0.50 | 18.50 | 7.62 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates CURI's fair value at $0.74 vs the current price of $3.29, implying -77.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 66/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $0.74 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $0.58 (P10) to $1.06 (P90), with a median of $0.80.
CURI's current P/E of -13.7x compares to the industry median of 3.6x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -482.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
9 analysts cover CURI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $6.00 (range: $6.00 — $6.00), implying +82.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (2), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 66/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CURI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.