MODEL VERDICT
Consolidated Water Co. Ltd. (CWCO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $32.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $33.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $32.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $33.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $35.31 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $30561937.88 | +95119532.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 6 industry peers | $17629431.26 | +54868967.1% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $19.91 | -38.0% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $32695539.55 | +101760060.4% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $7718962.68 | +24024060.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $17854720.41 | +55570147.1% | 100% | 59 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 49.82 | 24.43 | 14.63 | 177.33 | 63.07 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.91 | 15.96 | 13.76 | 34.43 | 7.77 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.72 | 11.81 | 8.97 | 14.05 | 1.70 |
| P/FCF | 25.52 | 21.13 | 6.50 | 53.91 | 17.92 |
| P/FFO | 16.08 | 16.06 | 11.81 | 20.89 | 3.50 |
| P/TBV | 1.51 | 1.48 | 0.00 | 3.22 | 0.98 |
| P/AFFO | 36.52 | 42.29 | 15.56 | 51.78 | 16.63 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.38 | 1.36 | 0.00 | 2.94 | 0.90 |
| Div Yield | 2014.98 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 14104.74 | 5331.08 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.86 | 2.80 | 2.42 | 3.59 | 0.48 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates CWCO's fair value at $17854720.41 vs the current price of $32.13, implying +55570147.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 59/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $17854720.41 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%).
CWCO's current P/E of N/Ax compares to the industry median of 21.2x (6 peers in the group). This represents a N/A discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 49.8x over 6 years. Signal: N/A.
6 analysts cover CWCO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 59/100, based on: data completeness (0), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CWCO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.