MODEL VERDICT
CEMEX, S.A.B. de C.V. (CX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $12.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $12.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $11.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $11.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $11.92 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $20.73 | +69.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $270.60 | +2109.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $182.71 | +1391.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $210.57 | +1618.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $217.22 | +1673.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $189.22 | +1444.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $486.00 | +3867.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $503.89 | +4013.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $178.27 | +1355.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $210.60 | +1619.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $164.47 | +1242.6% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 4× | 6× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $27 | $27 | $27 | $27 | $41 |
| Conservative (7%) | $28 | $28 | $28 | $28 | $42 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $29 | $29 | $29 | $29 | $44 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $30 | $30 | $30 | $30 | $45 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.94 | 11.40 | 1.74 | 64.58 | 24.74 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.50 | 10.98 | 6.01 | 18.63 | 4.25 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.03 | 6.60 | 2.58 | 28.34 | 8.68 |
| P/FCF | 8.43 | 8.47 | 1.65 | 13.85 | 3.64 |
| P/FFO | 4.40 | 4.53 | 0.74 | 8.05 | 2.48 |
| P/TBV | 6.21 | 3.70 | 0.37 | 19.95 | 7.83 |
| P/AFFO | 10.11 | 10.30 | 1.79 | 20.72 | 6.55 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.67 | 0.66 | 0.12 | 0.99 | 0.30 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.50 | 0.51 | 0.10 | 0.71 | 0.21 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates CX's fair value at $164.47 vs the current price of $12.25, implying +1242.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $164.47 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $140.09 (P10) to $190.77 (P90), with a median of $163.20.
CX's current P/E of 1.9x compares to the industry median of 27.7x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -93.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.9x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
23 analysts cover CX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $13.66 (range: $12.75 — $15.00), implying +11.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (10), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (7.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 138900.0% to approximately $182. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.