MODEL VERDICT
DeFi Technologies Inc. (DEFT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $0.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $0.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $0.81 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book 5 industry peers | $0.22 | -71.9% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 3 analyst estimates | $2.99 | +282.3% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $1.06 | +36.0% | 100% | 41 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates DEFT's fair value at $1.06 vs the current price of $0.78, implying +36.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 41/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $1.06 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $0.52 (P10) to $1.20 (P90), with a median of $0.84.
DEFT's current P/E of -9.7x compares to the industry median of 46.6x (2 peers in the group). This represents a -120.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
3 analysts cover DEFT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $2.75 (range: $2.50 — $3.00), implying +251.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 41/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (22), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for DEFT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.