MODEL VERDICT
DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 106 industry peers | $2.82 | -30.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 106 industry peers | $2.39 | -41.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $2.44 | -40.0% | 100% | 44 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 4 valuation metrics, the model estimates DFDV's fair value at $2.44 vs the current price of $4.06, implying -40.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 44/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $2.44 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $1.35 (P10) to $3.98 (P90), with a median of $2.64.
DFDV's current P/E of -14.5x compares to the industry median of 23.7x (52 peers in the group). This represents a -161.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for DFDV.
The model confidence score is 44/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for DFDV.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.