MODEL VERDICT
Dole plc (DOLE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $15.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $15.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $15.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $14.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $15.69 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $26.33 | +73.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $51.59 | +240.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $13.08 | -13.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $0.38 | -97.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $54.05 | +257.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $3.26 | -78.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $81.39 | +437.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $77.07 | +409.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $13.04 | -13.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $0.37 | -97.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $38.80 | +156.3% | 100% | 68 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 25× | 27× | 29× (Current) | 31× | 33× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $14 | $15 | $16 | $17 | $18 |
| Conservative (5%) | $14 | $15 | $16 | $17 | $18 |
| Base Case (-1.1%) | $13 | $14 | $15 | $16 | $17 |
| Bull Case (-2%) | $13 | $14 | $15 | $16 | $17 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.31 | 10.47 | 8.03 | 28.28 | 9.38 |
| EV/EBIT | 144.97 | 9.28 | 5.35 | 690.57 | 305.01 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.32 | 6.18 | 3.53 | 43.13 | 16.73 |
| P/FCF | 214.99 | 6.44 | 5.91 | 841.18 | 417.46 |
| P/FFO | 8.17 | 5.76 | 4.67 | 16.51 | 4.93 |
| P/TBV | 2.03 | 1.97 | 1.53 | 2.63 | 0.40 |
| P/AFFO | 14.75 | 8.70 | 7.78 | 33.84 | 12.73 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.84 | 0.82 | 0.69 | 1.03 | 0.13 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.02 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates DOLE's fair value at $38.80 vs the current price of $15.14, implying +156.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 68/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $38.80 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $29.99 (P10) to $95.67 (P90), with a median of $50.62.
DOLE's current P/E of 28.6x compares to the industry median of 24.7x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +15.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.3x over 4 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
8 analysts cover DOLE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $16.67 (range: $12.00 — $20.00), implying +10.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (3), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 68/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: DOLE trades at the 7000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (14.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DOLE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (1.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 700.0% to approximately $14. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.