MODEL VERDICT
Viant Technology Inc. (DSP) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $10.13 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $6.38 | -37.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 80 industry peers | $32.38 | +219.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 71 industry peers | $3.12 | -69.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $47.07 | +364.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 77 industry peers | $12.99 | +28.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $53.48 | +427.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 32 industry peers | $1.50 | -85.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $63.81 | +529.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $53.13 | +424.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 75 industry peers | $3.30 | -67.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $47.40 | +367.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $22.36 | +120.8% | 100% | 69 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 70× | 77× | 84× (Current) | 91× | 98× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $9 | $10 | $10 | $11 | $12 |
| Conservative (5%) | $9 | $10 | $11 | $11 | $12 |
| Base Case (7.6%) | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 |
| Bull Case (10%) | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 5.67 | 6.25 | 2.87 | 7.89 | 2.56 |
| P/FFO | 28.97 | 29.89 | 9.29 | 46.82 | 17.11 |
| P/TBV | 0.67 | 0.45 | 0.23 | 1.54 | 0.60 |
| P/AFFO | 50.78 | 34.39 | 10.39 | 123.96 | 50.82 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.62 | 0.43 | 0.21 | 1.42 | 0.54 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.67 | 0.53 | 0.29 | 1.34 | 0.46 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 25 valuation metrics, the model estimates DSP's fair value at $22.36 vs the current price of $10.13, implying +120.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $22.36 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $18.86 (P10) to $27.70 (P90), with a median of $23.23.
DSP's current P/E of 84.4x compares to the industry median of 26.0x (71 peers in the group). This represents a +225.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
13 analysts cover DSP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $15.17 (range: $14.50 — $16.00), implying +49.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (11), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for DSP.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.