Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$92.05
→
Intrinsic$67.03
-27%
$44.74$67.03$109.33
Market implies 34% growth for 5 years
ELF trades at a premium to our conservative estimate — investors expect above-average performance.
At $92, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (34%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $45 → Bull $109. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $83 | $90 | $97 | $105 |
| 10% | $57 | $62 | $67 | $72 |
| 12% | $43 | $47 | $50 | $54 |
| 14% | $34 | $37 | $40 | $43 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($109) offers 19% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
Bear Case
- Bear case ($45) implies 51% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 34% growth expectations vs 25% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 27% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$144.15M
Year 2$180.19M
Year 3$225.23M
Year 4$281.54M
Year 5$351.93M
Terminal$5.18B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$115.32MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.