MODEL VERDICT
Evolent Health, Inc. (EVH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $3.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $3.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $2.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $2.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Mar 13, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $2.99 | Pending | -22.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $4.21 | +12.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $10.67 | +184.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $0.70 | -81.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $32.86 | +776.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $39.64 | +957.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $0.70 | -81.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $13.21 | +252.2% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 56.13 | 31.09 | 11.62 | 135.92 | 51.47 |
| P/FCF | 100.46 | 96.07 | 32.28 | 173.02 | 70.47 |
| P/FFO | 129.57 | 71.58 | 20.96 | 354.18 | 154.23 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.19 | 2.20 | 0.80 | 3.44 | 1.14 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.39 | 1.47 | 0.24 | 2.62 | 0.84 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates EVH's fair value at $13.21 vs the current price of $3.75, implying +252.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $13.21 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $6.26 (P10) to $20.67 (P90), with a median of $12.45.
EVH's current P/E of -0.7x compares to the industry median of 37.8x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -102.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
29 analysts cover EVH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $6.38 (range: $3.50 — $10.00), implying +70.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (23), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for EVH.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.