MODEL VERDICT
HubSpot, Inc. (HUBS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $264.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $233.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $243.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $231.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $371.56 | Below threshold | -37.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $252.31 | -4.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 80 industry peers | $27.79 | -89.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 71 industry peers | $22.51 | -91.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $260.07 | -1.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 77 industry peers | $15.15 | -94.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $252.34 | -4.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $204.64 | -22.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $185.74 | -29.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 75 industry peers | $23.62 | -91.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $261.91 | -1.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $328.17 | +24.1% | 100% | 70 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 258× | 283× | 308× (Current) | 333× | 358× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $231 | $253 | $275 | $298 | $320 |
| Conservative (7%) | $236 | $259 | $282 | $305 | $328 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $244 | $268 | $291 | $315 | $339 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $252 | $276 | $301 | $325 | $349 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 164.91 | 102.28 | 30.17 | 590.66 | 193.12 |
| P/TBV | 22.50 | 23.96 | 11.27 | 39.81 | 10.17 |
| P/B Ratio | 19.12 | 18.92 | 10.25 | 35.37 | 8.85 |
| P/S Ratio | 13.67 | 13.34 | 6.82 | 23.76 | 6.28 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates HUBS's fair value at $328.17 vs the current price of $264.51, implying +24.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $328.17 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $212.69 (P10) to $925.75 (P90), with a median of $497.45.
HUBS's current P/E of 307.6x compares to the industry median of 26.2x (71 peers in the group). This represents a +1075.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
47 analysts cover HUBS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $383.00 (range: $280.00 — $577.00), implying +44.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (43), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for HUBS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.