MODEL VERDICT
HubSpot, Inc. (HUBS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $239.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $223.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $222.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $218.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $192.26 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $353.50 | +47.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $59.40 | -75.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $22.48 | -90.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $263.83 | +10.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $14.45 | -94.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $279.72 | +16.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $255.24 | +6.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $243.48 | +1.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $26.48 | -89.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $238.95 | -0.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $425.09 | +77.2% | 100% | 76 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 235× | 257× | 279× (Current) | 301× | 323× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $210 | $230 | $250 | $269 | $289 |
| Conservative (7%) | $215 | $235 | $256 | $276 | $296 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $222 | $243 | $264 | $285 | $306 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $229 | $251 | $272 | $294 | $315 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 164.91 | 102.28 | 30.17 | 590.66 | 193.12 |
| P/TBV | 22.74 | 23.96 | 11.27 | 39.81 | 9.90 |
| P/B Ratio | 19.12 | 18.92 | 10.25 | 35.37 | 8.85 |
| P/S Ratio | 13.67 | 13.34 | 6.82 | 23.76 | 6.28 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates HUBS's fair value at $425.09 vs the current price of $239.89, implying +77.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 76/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $425.09 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $174.59 (P10) to $610.41 (P90), with a median of $348.20.
HUBS's current P/E of 278.9x compares to the industry median of 26.1x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +967.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
47 analysts cover HUBS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $360.89 (range: $260.00 — $577.00), implying +50.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (43), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 76/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for HUBS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.