Guild Holdings Company (GHLD)
Estimates & Forecasts•Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
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GHLD Price Targets Summary| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | $329M | $-39M | $97M | $157M | $217M | $313M | $425M |
| EPS (Diluted) | $5.35 | $-0.64 | $1.56 | $2.48 | $3.35 | $4.76 | $6.34 |
| YoY Growth | — | -111.9% | — | +62.0% | +37.6% | +44.7% | +35.6% |
| Net Margin | 26.9% | -5.3% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.0% |
USD · GHLD · Proprietary Model| Metric | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.2B | $1.7B | $2.5B | $3.8B | $5.3B |
| Net Income | $97M | $157M | $217M | $313M | $425M |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.56 | $2.48 | $3.35 | $4.76 | $6.34 |
| Free Cash Flow | $-669M | $47M | $64M | $94M | $128M |
Treat point estimates cautiously; use wider scenario ranges and position sizing discipline.
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying GHLD stock.
Guild Holdings Company's projected EPS for the next fiscal year is $2.48. This estimate blends our quantitative model with Wall Street analyst consensus and carries a confidence score of 33/100. The model factors in revenue trajectory, margin path, and share buyback trends to arrive at this figure.
Our scenario-based model produces three price targets for Guild Holdings Company: Bear case $N/A, Base case $43, and Bull case $127. These targets are derived by applying the median historical P/E ratio to forward EPS estimates under each growth scenario. They are not buy/sell recommendations.
Guild Holdings Company's projected revenue growth for the next fiscal year is 44.7%, reaching approximately $1.7B in total revenue. Growth estimates are probability-weighted and blend analyst consensus with our CAGR extrapolation model. Outer years (FY+3, FY+4) fade toward industry median growth rates.
Accuracy depends on several measurable factors. Our model confidence score of 33/100 is computed from revenue predictability (25% weight), margin stability (20%), historical earnings beat rate (20%), data depth (15%), analyst coverage (10%), and model-consensus agreement (10%). Contracting margins add uncertainty to forward projections. No forecast model is perfect — always cross-reference with your own analysis.
Guild Holdings Company's forward operating margin is estimated at 12.1% for the next fiscal year. The margin trend is currently "contracting". Our model tracks margin mean-reversion patterns and adjusts for sector-specific cost dynamics. Operating leverage is a key driver of EPS growth beyond top-line revenue expansion.
The v2 model uses a multi-step process: (1) Revenue is projected via blended CAGR with probability weighting, (2) Operating and net margins follow a mean-reversion path calibrated to sector norms, (3) EPS is derived from net income divided by projected diluted shares (accounting for buyback trends), (4) For FY+1 and FY+2, estimates are blended with analyst consensus based on coverage depth, (5) Price targets apply median historical P/E to forward EPS under bear/base/bull growth scenarios. All inputs are from public filings and third-party data providers.
The bear case ($N/A) assumes P25 revenue growth, worst-case margins, and multiple compression. Key risks include: unexpected margin contraction, revenue deceleration below model floor, regulatory headwinds, macro deterioration, or competitive disruption. A confidence score below 60 suggests higher estimate volatility. Always size positions according to the full scenario range, not just the base case.
Our model is above Wall Street consensus with a 26.8% gap. For FY+1, analyst estimates blend with our model at 15% analyst weight. By FY+3 and FY+4, estimates are purely model-driven as analyst coverage thins out at longer horizons.