MODEL VERDICT
Guild Holdings Company (GHLD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $20.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $20.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $20.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $20.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $20.01 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $17.58 | -12.1% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 6 industry peers | $18.03 | -9.9% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Dividend Yield 3 industry peers | $14.18 | -29.1% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $17.38 | -13.1% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $16.71 | -16.5% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $15.02 | -24.9% | 100% | 71 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (30%) | $18 | $22 | $26 | $30 | $35 |
| Conservative (49%) | $21 | $26 | $30 | $35 | $40 |
| Base Case (75.8%) | $25 | $30 | $36 | $41 | $47 |
| Bull Case (102%) | $28 | $35 | $41 | $47 | $54 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 4.17 | 2.87 | 1.89 | 9.04 | 3.29 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.81 | 11.24 | 4.90 | 31.86 | 11.85 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.46 | 10.54 | 4.56 | 24.18 | 8.46 |
| P/FFO | 3.37 | 2.63 | 1.72 | 6.50 | 2.13 |
| P/AFFO | 3.52 | 2.67 | 1.74 | 6.98 | 2.35 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.85 | 0.73 | 0.50 | 1.38 | 0.34 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.71 | 0.60 | 0.51 | 1.18 | 0.28 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates GHLD's fair value at $15.02 vs the current price of $20.01, implying -24.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 71/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $15.02 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.23 (P10) to $19.30 (P90), with a median of $15.64.
GHLD's current P/E of 12.8x compares to the industry median of 11.3x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +13.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 4.2x over 4 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
6 analysts cover GHLD with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $17.63 (range: $15.50 — $19.00), implying -11.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 71/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: GHLD trades at the 5000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (4.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GHLD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (11.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5350.0% to approximately $9. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.