MODEL VERDICT
Genuine Parts Company (GPC) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $119.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $118.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $147.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $146.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $128.34 | Pending | +13.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 43 analyst estimates | $165.76 | +39.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 40 industry peers | $103.21 | -13.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $13.75 | -88.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 38 industry peers | $69.70 | -41.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 40 industry peers | $94.52 | -20.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 39 industry peers | $11.58 | -90.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 51 industry peers | $234.31 | +96.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 51 industry peers | $240.39 | +101.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 36 industry peers | $13.75 | -88.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 39 industry peers | $69.92 | -41.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $92.21 | -22.7% | 100% | 86 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 214× | 234× | 254× (Current) | 274× | 294× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $105 | $114 | $124 | $134 | $144 |
| Conservative (7%) | $107 | $117 | $127 | $137 | $147 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $111 | $121 | $131 | $142 | $152 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $114 | $125 | $135 | $146 | $157 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 60.49 | 21.69 | 14.84 | 261.62 | 98.59 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.31 | 17.98 | 12.91 | 36.24 | 7.48 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.72 | 14.22 | 11.12 | 15.62 | 1.73 |
| P/FCF | 23.02 | 21.90 | 7.81 | 40.68 | 9.67 |
| P/FFO | 23.30 | 16.99 | 11.72 | 59.79 | 16.99 |
| P/AFFO | 56.64 | 21.90 | 16.92 | 161.51 | 60.92 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.72 | 4.42 | 3.75 | 6.49 | 1.03 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.89 | 0.88 | 0.69 | 1.12 | 0.16 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 25 valuation metrics, the model estimates GPC's fair value at $92.21 vs the current price of $119.26, implying -22.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $92.21 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $81.18 (P10) to $119.78 (P90), with a median of $100.50.
GPC's current P/E of 253.7x compares to the industry median of 29.3x (36 peers in the group). This represents a +767.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 60.5x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
22 analysts cover GPC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $141.75 (range: $127.00 — $160.00), implying +18.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (12), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: GPC trades at the 9720th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (60.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GPC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (5.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 41030.0% to approximately $609. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.