MODEL VERDICT
LKQ Corporation (LKQ)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $28.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $31.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $31.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $30.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $30.38 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $61.31 | +115.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $56.29 | +97.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $64.42 | +126.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $101.67 | +256.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $65.96 | +131.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $104.55 | +266.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $8.67 | -69.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $89.77 | +214.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $83.13 | +191.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $62.74 | +120.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $95.59 | +235.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $66.05 | +131.7% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $19 | $24 | $29 | $34 | $38 |
| Conservative (5%) | $20 | $25 | $30 | $35 | $39 |
| Base Case (2.4%) | $19 | $24 | $29 | $34 | $39 |
| Bull Case (3%) | $19 | $24 | $29 | $34 | $39 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.31 | 13.97 | 12.85 | 20.52 | 2.80 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.62 | 12.53 | 11.59 | 17.60 | 2.16 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.81 | 10.84 | 8.35 | 13.19 | 1.70 |
| P/FCF | 12.49 | 12.85 | 8.46 | 16.65 | 2.92 |
| P/FFO | 10.66 | 10.51 | 7.63 | 13.00 | 2.01 |
| P/TBV | 50.71 | 35.58 | 28.61 | 103.08 | 35.09 |
| P/AFFO | 14.03 | 14.06 | 9.70 | 18.82 | 2.98 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.10 | 2.07 | 1.18 | 3.08 | 0.64 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.93 | 0.92 | 0.56 | 1.37 | 0.27 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates LKQ's fair value at $66.05 vs the current price of $28.51, implying +131.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $66.05 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $56.85 (P10) to $71.89 (P90), with a median of $64.17.
LKQ's current P/E of 12.1x compares to the industry median of 27.4x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -55.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.3x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
22 analysts cover LKQ with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $38.67 (range: $34.00 — $43.00), implying +35.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (19), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LKQ's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (9.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 22110.0% to approximately $92. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.