MODEL VERDICT
Sea Limited (SE) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $108.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $115.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $106.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $113.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $133.52 | Below threshold | -18.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 43 analyst estimates | $93.30 | -14.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 40 industry peers | $37.25 | -65.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $21.36 | -80.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 38 industry peers | $113.43 | +4.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 40 industry peers | $16.48 | -84.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 39 industry peers | $117.33 | +8.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 51 industry peers | $50.47 | -53.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 51 industry peers | $44.15 | -59.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 36 industry peers | $21.36 | -80.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 39 industry peers | $117.92 | +8.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $128.34 | +18.3% | 100% | 79 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 125× | 137× | 149× (Current) | 161× | 173× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $95 | $104 | $113 | $122 | $131 |
| Conservative (7%) | $97 | $107 | $116 | $125 | $134 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $100 | $110 | $120 | $129 | $139 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $104 | $114 | $123 | $133 | $143 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 155.85 | 21.71 | 13.22 | 432.61 | 239.73 |
| P/TBV | 13.28 | 11.64 | 3.68 | 30.02 | 9.90 |
| P/B Ratio | 12.49 | 11.27 | 3.59 | 27.78 | 9.08 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.77 | 4.63 | 1.84 | 21.71 | 7.10 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates SE's fair value at $128.34 vs the current price of $108.45, implying +18.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $128.34 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $56.31 (P10) to $222.02 (P90), with a median of $112.78.
SE's current P/E of 148.6x compares to the industry median of 29.3x (36 peers in the group). This represents a +407.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
44 analysts cover SE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $175.00 (range: $170.00 — $185.00), implying +61.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (32), Hold (10), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SE.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.