GRAIL Inc. (GRAL)
Valuation Overview•Is GRAIL Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Market price has outpaced base-case intrinsic cash flows, pricing in significant future growth optimism.
Fragile underlying quality score of 42/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain cautious, with consensus price targets indicating limited room for upside expansion.
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Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant profitability concerns.
Wall Street is cautious, forecasting potential downside. The company currently dilutes shareholders to fund operations and growth rather than returning capital.
GRAL struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($152M) and minimal debt risk.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (38.4% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (-338.4%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $44.7M | +17.2% | +38.4% | — | — | |
| EBITDA | -$166.7M | — | +58.5% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$110.2M | +79.9% | +57.7% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-2.56 | +82.5% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$81.2M | +48.7% | +20.0% | -4.2% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | -10.8% | -69.1% | -220.3% | -220.3% |
| Operating Margin | -338.4% | -1244.5% | -4438.3% | -4438.3% |
| Net Margin | -236.9% | -1155.2% | -4344.9% | -4344.9% |
| FCF Margin | -178.7% | -440.2% | -1512.0% | -1512.0% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26Latest | $-2.66 | $-2.56 | +3.8% | ||
| Q2'26 | $-2.76 | $-2.29 | +17.1% | ||
| Q1'26 | $-3.33 | $-2.44 | +26.7% | ||
| Q4'25 | $-3.36 | $-2.46 | +26.8% | ||
| Q3'25 | $-3.14 | $-3.18 | -1.3% | ||
| Q2'25 | $-4.03 | $-3.10 | +23.1% | ||
| Q1'25 | $-4.41 | $-2.89 | +34.5% | ||
| Q4'24 | $-6.43 | $-3.94 | +38.7% |
Total return is +60.4% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +47.2%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +49.2% | +37.9% | — |
| 1Y | +60.4% | +47.2% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +113.3% | +88.5% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +57.5% | +45.4% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +25.5% | +11.5% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.9x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about GRAIL Inc. (GRAL) valuation, health, and returns.
GRAIL Inc. is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. overvalued (implying -41.5% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $77.51)
GRAIL Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $77.51 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $107.88 (implying -18.6% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
GRAIL Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 42/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 4.7 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -16.8%.
GRAIL Inc. does not return material capital to shareholders via dividends or share repurchases, electing to retain earnings to fund internal growth.
GRAIL Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +17.2% 1Y revenue growth and +82.5% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +38.4%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 8 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 88% of recent quarters with a 4-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a -18.6% change from current levels.
Investment risks for GRAIL Inc. include: -62.9% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (2.79x market volatility). Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 2.79x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.