Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$208.45
→
Intrinsic$120.13
-42%
$77.84$120.13$204.20
Current price reflects execution expectations above 22% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
Range: Bear $78 → Bull $204. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
Current price reflects assumptions at the upper end of our valuation range (bull case: $204).
| Discount ↓Growth → | 18% | 20% | 22% | 24% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $153 | $167 | $181 | $196 |
| 10% | $102 | $111 | $120 | $130 |
| 12% | $75 | $81 | $88 | $95 |
| 14% | $58 | $63 | $68 | $74 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($204) with 26% growth, 8% discount rate
Bear Case
- Bear case ($78) implies 63% downside at 17% growth, 12% discount
- Trading 42% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
- Price exceeds bull case ($204) — requires exceptional execution
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$14.33B
Year 2$17.45B
Year 3$21.26B
Year 4$25.89B
Year 5$31.53B
Terminal$499.69B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate21.8%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$11.77BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.