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ZoomInfo Technologies Inc. (GTM) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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ZoomInfo Technologies Inc. (GTM)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$10.06
→
Intrinsic$25.93
+158%
$16.55$25.93$43.72
Market implies 6% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests GTM could have 158% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $10, the market prices in only 6% growth — below historical 25%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $17 → Bull $44. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →21%23%25%27%
8%$33$36$39$42
10%$22$24$26$28
12%$16$17$19$21
14%$12$13$14$16

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($44) offers 335% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (6%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($17) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
  • Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$376.38M
Year 2$470.47M
Year 3$588.09M
Year 4$735.11M
Year 5$918.88M
Terminal$13.52B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$301.10MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is GTM stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

GTM trades at $10.06 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $20.89, implying +99% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 25.0% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of GTM's future cash flows. The bear case ($12.51) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is GTM's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $301M, projected at 25.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $1.25B net debt and dividing by 0.36B shares: Bear $12.51 | Base $20.89 | Bull $33.22. Current price $10.06 implies +99% to base case.

How is GTM's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 25.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($8.81B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.