MODEL VERDICT
ZoomInfo Technologies Inc. (GTM) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $6.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $6.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $6.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $6.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $10.40 | Pending | -29.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $22.58 | +263.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 80 industry peers | $18.27 | +194.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 71 industry peers | $10.27 | +65.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $23.98 | +286.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 77 industry peers | $17.81 | +186.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $22.56 | +263.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $13.47 | +116.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $13.22 | +112.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 75 industry peers | $11.39 | +83.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $24.15 | +288.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $27.62 | +344.7% | 100% | 74 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 | $8 |
| Conservative (7%) | $5 | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $5 | $6 | $7 | $8 | $9 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $5 | $6 | $7 | $8 | $9 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 125.62 | 131.38 | 26.08 | 214.00 | 78.95 |
| EV/EBIT | 96.59 | 62.21 | 13.92 | 236.65 | 92.66 |
| EV/EBITDA | 59.88 | 38.06 | 10.49 | 147.25 | 53.34 |
| P/FCF | 36.39 | 24.32 | 8.29 | 93.88 | 32.78 |
| P/FFO | 84.39 | 58.94 | 15.13 | 201.04 | 72.26 |
| P/AFFO | 124.08 | 89.64 | 23.63 | 336.68 | 114.19 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.83 | 4.35 | 2.14 | 12.96 | 4.31 |
| P/S Ratio | 12.46 | 8.38 | 2.58 | 34.65 | 12.24 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates GTM's fair value at $27.62 vs the current price of $6.21, implying +344.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $27.62 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $21.78 (P10) to $37.58 (P90), with a median of $29.19.
GTM's current P/E of 15.9x compares to the industry median of 26.3x (71 peers in the group). This represents a -39.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 125.6x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
27 analysts cover GTM with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $9.29 (range: $6.00 — $12.00), implying +49.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (14), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GTM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (5.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 34070.0% to approximately $27. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.