MODEL VERDICT
Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $163.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $164.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $172.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $163.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $155.25 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $79.65 | -51.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $168.25 | +2.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $41.16 | -74.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $86.73 | -47.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $15.41 | -90.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $224.02 | +36.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $169.87 | +3.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $41.16 | -74.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $154.04 | -6.0% | 100% | 72 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.72 | 17.28 | 12.41 | 63.93 | 24.56 |
| EV/EBIT | 45.69 | 48.92 | 29.33 | 54.27 | 9.62 |
| EV/EBITDA | 33.41 | 16.11 | 9.70 | 129.43 | 42.98 |
| P/FCF | 96.26 | 41.69 | 21.28 | 353.17 | 128.83 |
| P/FFO | 37.03 | 17.10 | 8.71 | 113.30 | 41.42 |
| P/AFFO | 70.20 | 14.80 | 11.02 | 288.88 | 122.33 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.23 | 2.80 | 2.34 | 4.20 | 0.84 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.89 | 3.89 | 2.14 | 9.65 | 2.58 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates H's fair value at $154.04 vs the current price of $163.80, implying -6.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 72/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $154.04 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $94.33 (P10) to $254.60 (P90), with a median of $155.30.
H's current P/E of -303.3x compares to the industry median of 28.8x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -1154.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 27.7x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
49 analysts cover H with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $190.80 (range: $171.00 — $219.00), implying +16.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (18), Hold (25), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 72/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for H.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.