Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$380.72
→
Intrinsic$232.11
-39%
$150.19$232.11$395.20
Market implies 20% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 8% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $381, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (20%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $150 → Bull $395. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $288 | $316 | $346 | $378 |
| 10% | $193 | $212 | $232 | $254 |
| 12% | $143 | $157 | $172 | $188 |
| 14% | $113 | $123 | $135 | $147 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($395) offers 4% upside at 10% growth, 8% discount
- Conservative 8% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($150) implies 61% downside at 7% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 20% growth expectations vs 8% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 39% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$13.67B
Year 2$14.79B
Year 3$15.99B
Year 4$17.29B
Year 5$18.69B
Terminal$296.19B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.1%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$12.65BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.