Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC)
Valuation Overview•Is Hercules Capital, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a peer premium multiple, but this multiple is justified by a strong intrinsic cash flow value.
Moderate quality score of 57/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant solvency concerns.
Wall Street is broadly bullish, projecting solid upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
HTGC demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. However, the balance sheet carries elevated leverage, requiring careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities.
The company maintains stable top-line performance paired with highly explosive earnings growth (32.8% EPS 3Y CAGR). This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 65.8% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $123.5M | +27.0% | — | — | +15.8% | |
| EBITDA | $65.4M | — | +52.9% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $0.00 | +29.2% | +49.3% | — | +23.0% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.23 | +14.9% | +32.8% | -1.6% | +12.1% | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$230.6M | -258.5% | -0.1% | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 88.3% | 85.2% | 83.0% | 81.4% |
| Operating Margin | 65.8% | 65.4% | 59.0% | 55.4% |
| Net Margin | 50.1% | 63.8% | 58.1% | 54.9% |
| FCF Margin | -60.8% | -30.6% | -45.6% | -50.0% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.47 | $0.48 | +2.1% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.48 | $0.48 | +0.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.48 | $0.49 | +2.1% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.47 | $0.50 | +6.4% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.46 | $0.45 | -2.2% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.51 | $0.49 | -3.9% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.51 | $0.51 | +0.0% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.51 | $0.51 | +0.0% |
Total return is -3.2% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -28.2%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -12.9% | -22.2% | — |
| 1Y | -3.2% | -28.2% | +10.8% |
| 3YCAGR | +13.8% | -5.8% | +41.1% |
| 5YCAGR | +8.0% | -4.7% | +56.6% |
| 10YCAGR | +10.0% | -3.6% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) valuation, health, and returns.
Hercules Capital, Inc. is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Premium mostly justified compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +63.1% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $25.26)
Hercules Capital, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $25.26 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $14.04 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $16.50 (implying +6.5% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Hercules Capital, Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 57/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 6.6%.
Hercules Capital, Inc. pays a 9.1% dividend yield, covered by a 81% payout ratio with 0 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.2% buyback yield.
Hercules Capital, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +27.0% 1Y revenue growth and +14.9% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of N/A.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 31 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 50% of recent quarters with a 1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +6.5% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Hercules Capital, Inc. include: -28.9% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.64x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.