MODEL VERDICT
ING Groep N.V. (ING) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $28.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $29.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $28.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $30.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $28.29 | Below threshold | +8.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 21 industry peers | $32.00 | +11.2% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 21 industry peers | $27.65 | -3.9% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 21 bank peers | $30.41 | +5.7% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 21 industry peers | $32.00 | +11.2% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 21 analyst estimates | $29.25 | +1.7% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $28.27 | -1.8% | 100% | 85 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (11%) | $19 | $23 | $28 | $33 | $38 |
| Conservative (18%) | $20 | $25 | $30 | $35 | $40 |
| Base Case (27.1%) | $22 | $27 | $32 | $38 | $43 |
| Bull Case (37%) | $23 | $29 | $35 | $41 | $46 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.94 | 12.05 | 9.50 | 14.75 | 1.89 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.11 | 13.88 | 0.93 | 21.86 | 6.94 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.19 | 12.29 | 0.77 | 21.86 | 6.77 |
| P/FFO | 8.83 | 9.04 | 6.73 | 11.11 | 1.75 |
| P/TBV | 1.03 | 0.99 | 0.68 | 1.69 | 0.32 |
| P/AFFO | 9.35 | 9.49 | 6.94 | 12.17 | 1.99 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.00 | 0.97 | 0.66 | 1.64 | 0.31 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.64 | 1.37 | 0.75 | 3.63 | 0.98 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates ING's fair value at $28.27 vs the current price of $28.77, implying -1.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $28.27 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $24.52 (P10) to $28.77 (P90), with a median of $26.62.
ING's current P/E of 11.5x compares to the industry median of 15.1x (21 peers in the group). This represents a -23.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.9x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
17 analysts cover ING with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $22.50 (range: $22.50 — $22.50), implying -21.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (10), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 27.5% is 13.8 percentage points above the 7-year average (13.7%), with a Z-score of +1.9σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$13. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ING's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.9σ, meaning margins are 1.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (13.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5610.0% to approximately $13. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.