MODEL VERDICT
JBS N.V. (JBS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $16.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $16.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $17.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $17.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $18.32 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $19.05 | +18.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $257.08 | +1498.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $550.28 | +3322.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $105.16 | +554.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $329.79 | +1950.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $237.14 | +1374.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $731.90 | +4451.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $419.61 | +2509.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $349.11 | +2071.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $470.02 | +2823.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $105.17 | +554.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $273.63 | +1601.7% | 100% | 68 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 5× | 7× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (27%) | $155 | $155 | $155 | $194 | $272 |
| Conservative (44%) | $176 | $176 | $176 | $220 | $308 |
| Base Case (68.0%) | $205 | $205 | $205 | $257 | $359 |
| Bull Case (92%) | $235 | $235 | $235 | $293 | $410 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates JBS's fair value at $273.63 vs the current price of $16.08, implying +1601.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 68/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $273.63 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $190.59 (P10) to $308.20 (P90), with a median of $249.71.
JBS's current P/E of 2.6x compares to the industry median of 18.0x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -85.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
3 analysts cover JBS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $19.50 (range: $17.00 — $23.00), implying +21.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 68/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that JBS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (4.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 76500.0% to approximately $139. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.