MODEL VERDICT
Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $63.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $64.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $64.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $63.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $65.64 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $41.78 | -34.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $40.14 | -37.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $16.20 | -74.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $37.57 | -41.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $31.37 | -50.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $42.71 | -32.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $215.23 | +238.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $151.35 | +137.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $15.20 | -76.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $36.52 | -42.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $43.49 | -31.7% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 39× | 43× | 47× (Current) | 51× | 55× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $54 | $60 | $65 | $71 | $76 |
| Conservative (5%) | $56 | $61 | $67 | $73 | $79 |
| Base Case (-25.1%) | $40 | $44 | $48 | $52 | $56 |
| Bull Case (-34%) | $35 | $39 | $42 | $46 | $49 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.00 | 13.96 | 6.98 | 43.10 | 13.45 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.83 | 13.20 | 6.81 | 22.99 | 6.21 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.67 | 9.99 | 5.48 | 29.62 | 8.19 |
| P/FCF | 17.84 | 15.68 | 8.79 | 28.25 | 7.93 |
| P/FFO | 11.22 | 9.29 | 5.09 | 27.54 | 7.50 |
| P/TBV | 14.00 | 7.42 | 6.51 | 40.48 | 14.81 |
| P/AFFO | 15.33 | 14.88 | 8.85 | 23.80 | 5.94 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.44 | 1.14 | 1.04 | 2.36 | 0.49 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.51 | 0.42 | 0.36 | 0.79 | 0.17 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates TSN's fair value at $43.49 vs the current price of $63.68, implying -31.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $43.49 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $41.83 (P10) to $57.85 (P90), with a median of $49.28.
TSN's current P/E of 46.8x compares to the industry median of 11.9x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +293.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.0x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
30 analysts cover TSN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $70.25 (range: $61.00 — $78.00), implying +10.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (14), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: TSN trades at the 9000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (19.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TSN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (3.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 27060.0% to approximately $236. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.