MODEL VERDICT
Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $21.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $21.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $21.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $20.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $20.87 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $15.32 | -28.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $10.76 | -49.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $9.11 | -57.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $13.12 | -38.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $13.40 | -37.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $15.70 | -26.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $27.69 | +29.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $17.75 | -16.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $9.11 | -57.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $13.06 | -38.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $15.69 | -26.4% | 100% | 89 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 21× | 23× | 25× (Current) | 27× | 29× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $19 | $20 | $22 | $24 | $26 |
| Conservative (5%) | $19 | $21 | $23 | $25 | $26 |
| Base Case (-12.1%) | $16 | $18 | $19 | $21 | $22 |
| Bull Case (-16%) | $15 | $17 | $18 | $20 | $21 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.47 | 25.06 | 21.34 | 29.40 | 3.00 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.54 | 20.40 | 17.32 | 25.17 | 2.54 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.43 | 17.66 | 14.58 | 22.10 | 2.64 |
| P/FCF | 28.34 | 29.20 | 17.04 | 36.90 | 7.25 |
| P/FFO | 19.88 | 20.26 | 16.20 | 23.90 | 3.05 |
| P/TBV | 29.62 | 12.77 | 9.29 | 117.75 | 39.59 |
| P/AFFO | 27.48 | 27.71 | 21.35 | 34.13 | 4.49 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.05 | 3.32 | 1.65 | 4.15 | 1.01 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.94 | 2.01 | 1.08 | 2.65 | 0.62 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates HRL's fair value at $15.69 vs the current price of $21.32, implying -26.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $15.69 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.86 (P10) to $19.01 (P90), with a median of $17.41.
HRL's current P/E of 24.5x compares to the industry median of 10.5x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +134.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 25.5x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
29 analysts cover HRL with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $27.25 (range: $25.00 — $30.00), implying +27.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (16), Sell (7), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HRL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.7σ, meaning margins are 1.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 9560.0% to approximately $42. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.