Upside case
Bull case
$301+481.6%
JEF would need investors to value it at roughly 86x earnings — about 71x more generous than today's 15x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
9
analysts
5 bullish · 0 bearish · 9 covering JEF
Strong Buy
0
Buy
5
Hold
4
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$68
+30.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$29 – $301
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
9
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
14.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.7B
JEF price targets
Three scenarios for where JEF stock could go
Current
~$52
Confidence
38 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $52
Bear
$29
Base
$75
Bull
$301
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$75+45.9%
At 22x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$29-43.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 7x multiple contraction could push JEF down roughly 44% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Jefferies Financial Group Inc.
JEF · NYSEFinancial ServicesFinancial - Capital MarketsNovember year-end
Jefferies Financial Group is a global investment bank and financial services firm that provides advisory, capital markets, and asset management services. It generates revenue primarily through investment banking fees — including M&A advisory and underwriting — and trading commissions from its capital markets business, with asset management contributing additional fee-based income. The firm's competitive advantage lies in its focused mid-market expertise and strong client relationships in sectors like energy, healthcare, and technology, which drive repeat advisory mandates.
Market Cap
$10.7B
Net Income TTM
$819M
JEF Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-2.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q1 2026
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.43/$0.44
Revenue
$2.5B/$1.6B
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.05/$0.80
Revenue
$2.9B/$1.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.89/$0.88
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.89/$0.89
Revenue
$2.0B/$2.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.43/$0.44 | -2.3% | $2.5B/$1.6B | +59.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.05/$0.80 | +31.3% | $2.9B/$1.9B | +51.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.89/$0.88 | +1.6% | $2.1B/$2.0B | +2.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.89/$0.89 | +0.0% | $2.0B/$2.0B | +1.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$10.7B
-1.1% YoY
FY2
$11.1B
+4.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.93
+6.9% YoY
FY2
$4.13
+5.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$911M
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
JEF beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
JEF Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $11.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Investment Banking
34.3%
+14.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
74.1%
+1.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Investment Banking is the largest disclosed segment at 34.3% of FY 2025 revenue, up 14.8% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 74.1%, up 1.1% YoY.
JEF Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $100 — implies +103.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
103.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
JEF
18.3x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
28% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
JEF
18.3x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
+37% premium
vs JEF 5Y Avg P/E
Today
18.3x
vs
5Y Average
19.3x
5% discount
Forward PE
14.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
-22%
Financial Services
10.5x
+41%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
18.3x
S&P 500
25.2x
-28%
Financial Services
13.4x
+37%
5Y Avg
19.3x
-5%
PEG Ratio
13.82x
S&P 500
1.75x
+692%
Financial Services
1.03x
+1248%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
-1.8x
S&P 500
15.3x
-112%
Financial Services
11.4x
-116%
5Y Avg
3.6x
-150%
Price/FCF
32.1x
S&P 500
21.3x
+50%
Financial Services
10.6x
+201%
5Y Avg
17.1x
+88%
Price/Sales
1.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-69%
Financial Services
2.3x
-56%
5Y Avg
1.3x
-23%
Dividend Yield
3.25%
S&P 500
1.88%
+73%
Financial Services
2.68%
+21%
5Y Avg
2.65%
+22%
| Metric | JEF | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg JEF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 14.8x | 19.1x-22% | 10.5x+41% | — |
| Trailing PE | 18.3x | 25.2x-28% | 13.4x+37% | 19.3x |
| PEG Ratio | 13.82x | 1.75x+692% | 1.03x+1248% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | -1.8x | 15.3x-112% | 11.4x-116% | 3.6x-150% |
| Price/FCF | 32.1x | 21.3x+50% | 10.6x+201% | 17.1x+88% |
| Price/Sales | 1.0x | 3.1x-69% | 2.3x-56% | 1.3x-23% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.25% | 1.88% | 2.68% | 2.65% |
JEF trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolJEF Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
JEF generates 7.7% ROE and 1.1% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.68
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
7.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
2.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$14.0B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$12.3B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
7.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.8%
Dividend
3.2%
Buyback
0.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$59M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.68
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
223M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageJEF Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Capital Market Slowdown
A general slowdown in capital markets can significantly impact Jefferies Financial Group's investment banking and trading businesses, leading to reduced revenues from IPOs, M&A, and underwriting activities.
High Risk
Private Credit Concerns
Issues in the private credit market, including defaults and collapses of lenders like Market Financial Solutions and First Brands Group, pose substantial risks to Jefferies, resulting in write-downs and potential losses.
High Risk
Interest Rate Volatility
Fluctuations in interest rates can tighten financial conditions, adversely affecting Jefferies' profitability and overall financial performance.
Medium
Market Volatility
Adverse changes in equity prices, foreign exchange rates, and commodity prices can lead to significant losses for Jefferies and negatively impact transaction activity.
Medium
Economic Uncertainty
Global growth slowdowns and economic uncertainty can depress Jefferies' underwriting and advisory revenue, impacting its overall financial health.
Medium
Credit Risk and Lending Standards
Concerns regarding Jefferies' lending standards and perceived higher risk appetite compared to peers may lead to intermittent problems with borrowers, affecting credit quality.
Lower
Regulatory and Compliance Risks
As a financial services firm, Jefferies is subject to various regulatory and compliance requirements, which can pose risks if not adequately managed.
Lower
Litigation Risk
Defaults and collapses of borrowers can lead to litigation, as evidenced by allegations of fraud related to First Brands Group, potentially impacting Jefferies' reputation.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why JEF Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Investment Banking Strength
Jefferies has experienced a significant recovery and record-breaking revenue in its investment banking division, driven by increased advisory fees, equity underwriting, and a healthy global deal pipeline for M&A and IPOs. The firm has capitalized on a rejuvenated Equity Capital Market, leading high-profile IPOs.
Undervalued Asset and Takeover Speculation
Jefferies' stock has experienced a significant decline, making it an attractive, undervalued target for larger financial institutions. Japan's Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG) has been increasing its stake in Jefferies and is reportedly considering a takeover bid, which has boosted the stock price.
Growth Potential and Strategic Moves
The company's recent acquisitions and platform growth are seen as drivers for future revenue. Jefferies has also been actively reshaping its capital structure through long-dated note offerings and share buybacks, while maintaining its dividend.
Positive Market Outlook
Analysts at Jefferies itself forecast a strong year for the S&P 500, with a fair value target of 7,500 by the end of 2026, driven by steady earnings growth and AI-linked stocks. They favor growth-oriented sectors, including financials.
Resilience and EPS Growth
Despite some lagging profit margins compared to peers, there is a strong consensus for EPS growth in fiscal year 2026. The company has also shown resilience to past economic shocks.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
JEF Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$51.75
52W Range Position
46%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$35.53
+45.7% from the low
52-Week High
$71.04
-27.2% from the high
1 Month
+23.24%
3 Month
-12.20%
YTD
-18.5%
1 Year
+7.4%
3Y CAGR
+19.6%
5Y CAGR
+10.0%
10Y CAGR
+13.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
JEF vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
14.8x
vs 16.3x median
-9% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-1.1%
vs +3.8% median
-128% below peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JEF JEF Jefferies Financial Group Inc. | $10.7B | 14.8x | -1.1% | — | Buy | +30.9% |
GS GS The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. | $291.2B | 15.8x | -23.1% | — | Hold | +6.2% |
MS MS Morgan Stanley | $307.5B | 16.3x | -5.3% | — | Buy | +6.5% |
EVR EVR Evercore Inc. | $13.2B | 17.6x | +27.8% | — | Buy | +14.8% |
PJT PJT PJT Partners Inc. | $3.7B | 20.4x | +13.9% | — | Hold | +4.3% |
LAZ LAZ Lazard Ltd | $4.4B | 14.6x | +3.8% | — | Buy | +1.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
JEF Dividend and Capital Return
JEF returns 3.8% total yield, led by a 3.25% dividend, raised 9 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 0.5%.
Dividend UnknownFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
3.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.5%
Dividend Yield
3.25%
Payout Ratio
—
How JEF Splits Its Return
Div 3.25%
Dividend 3.25%Buybacks 0.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.68
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
9Y
3Y Div CAGR
11.7%
5Y Div CAGR
22.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$59M
Estimated Shares Retired
1M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
223M
At 0.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.80 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.60 | +23.1% | 0.5% | 3.4% |
| 2024 | $1.30 | +8.3% | 0.3% | 2.0% |
| 2023 | $1.20 | +4.6% | 2.0% | 5.3% |
| 2022 | $1.15 | +33.3% | 9.3% | 12.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsJEF Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 9 analysts covering the stock, 5 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 4 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $68, implying +30.9% from the current price of $52. The bear case scenario is $29 and the bull case is $301.
02What is the JEF stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for JEF is $68 based on 9 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $97 (+87.4% from today), and the low-end target is $44 (-15.0%). The base case model target is $75.
03Is Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) stock overvalued in 2026?
JEF trades at 14.8x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for JEF in 2026 are: (1) Capital Market Slowdown — A general slowdown in capital markets can significantly impact Jefferies Financial Group's investment banking and trading businesses, leading to reduced revenues from IPOs, M&A, and underwriting activities. (2) Private Credit Concerns — Issues in the private credit market, including defaults and collapses of lenders like Market Financial Solutions and First Brands Group, pose substantial risks to Jefferies, resulting in write-downs and potential losses. (3) Interest Rate Volatility — Fluctuations in interest rates can tighten financial conditions, adversely affecting Jefferies' profitability and overall financial performance. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Jefferies Financial Group Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates JEF will report consensus revenue of $10.7B (-1.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.93 (+6.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $11.1B in revenue.
06When does Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for JEF is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Jefferies Financial Group Inc. generate?
Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) generated $911M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. JEF returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.2% yield) and share repurchases ($59M TTM).