MODEL VERDICT
Jackson Financial Inc. (JXN-PA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $26.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $26.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $26.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $25.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $25.59 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $154.81 | +489.1% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $189.15 | +619.7% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $205.68 | +682.6% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $124.59 | +374.1% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $154.74 | +488.8% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 8 bank peers | $271.91 | +934.7% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $52.23 | +98.7% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $50.51 | +92.2% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $161.43 | +514.3% | 100% | 68 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 4× | 6× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $49 | $49 | $49 | $49 | $73 |
| Conservative (7%) | $50 | $50 | $50 | $50 | $75 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $51 | $51 | $51 | $51 | $77 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $53 | $53 | $53 | $53 | $80 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates JXN-PA's fair value at $161.43 vs the current price of $26.28, implying +514.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 68/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $161.43 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $143.74 (P10) to $191.76 (P90), with a median of $167.49.
JXN-PA's current P/E of 2.2x compares to the industry median of 13.2x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -83.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
5 analysts cover JXN-PA with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 68/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that JXN-PA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (20.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6960.0% to approximately $45. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.