MODEL VERDICT
Equitable Holdings, Inc. (EQH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $42.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $41.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $41.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $42.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $37.43 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $50.23 | +19.1% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $12.50 | -70.4% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $63.18 | +49.8% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $28.95 | -31.3% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $50.22 | +19.1% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $38.30 | -9.2% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $24.05 | -43.0% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $38.21 | -9.4% | 100% | 78 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $28 | $35 | $43 | $51 | $59 |
| Conservative (7%) | $28 | $36 | $44 | $52 | $60 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $29 | $37 | $46 | $54 | $62 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $30 | $39 | $47 | $56 | $64 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.10 | 7.41 | 5.09 | 12.48 | 3.58 |
| EV/EBIT | 5.87 | 5.04 | 3.79 | 10.14 | 2.62 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.53 | 4.85 | 3.44 | 16.01 | 4.76 |
| P/FFO | 6.21 | 5.78 | 3.91 | 10.39 | 2.35 |
| P/TBV | 1.14 | 1.05 | 0.87 | 1.58 | 0.32 |
| P/AFFO | 6.67 | 6.11 | 4.16 | 11.50 | 2.67 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.81 | 1.01 | 0.59 | 4.29 | 1.43 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.14 | 1.11 | 0.77 | 1.80 | 0.35 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates EQH's fair value at $38.21 vs the current price of $42.17, implying -9.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $38.21 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $32.80 (P10) to $42.99 (P90), with a median of $37.82.
EQH's current P/E of 11.2x compares to the industry median of 13.3x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -16.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.1x over 4 years. Signal: Discount.
21 analysts cover EQH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $59.14 (range: $57.00 — $63.00), implying +40.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (19), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (25), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: EQH trades at the 4440th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (8.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for EQH.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.