MODEL VERDICT
Kosmos Energy Ltd. (KOS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $3.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $2.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $2.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $2.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $2.57 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $0.14 | -95.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $2.24 | -30.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $4.19 | +30.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $2.24 | -30.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $1.24 | -61.3% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.35 | 13.25 | 8.55 | 15.25 | 3.44 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.60 | 11.61 | 10.04 | 57.44 | 20.17 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.67 | 4.71 | 2.92 | 16.09 | 4.87 |
| P/FCF | 6.98 | 8.29 | 3.25 | 9.41 | 3.28 |
| P/FFO | 5.15 | 4.31 | 2.49 | 11.39 | 3.16 |
| P/TBV | 2.39 | 2.72 | 0.82 | 3.83 | 1.03 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.39 | 2.72 | 0.82 | 3.83 | 1.03 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.19 | 1.18 | 0.34 | 1.90 | 0.49 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates KOS's fair value at $1.24 vs the current price of $3.20, implying -61.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $1.24 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $0.57 (P10) to $1.43 (P90), with a median of $0.81.
KOS's current P/E of -2.2x compares to the industry median of 11.6x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -118.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.3x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
26 analysts cover KOS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $2.42 (range: $1.50 — $3.50), implying -24.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (7), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for KOS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.