MODEL VERDICT
LendingClub Corporation (LC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $17.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $17.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $17.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $16.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $14.77 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $18.23 | +6.9% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $24.48 | +43.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 9 bank peers | $28.90 | +69.4% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $17.79 | +4.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $17.07 | +0.1% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $23.76 | +39.3% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $13 | $16 | $18 | $20 | $23 |
| Conservative (7%) | $13 | $16 | $18 | $21 | $23 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $14 | $16 | $19 | $22 | $24 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $14 | $17 | $20 | $22 | $25 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 42.84 | 24.28 | 3.15 | 134.33 | 52.52 |
| EV/EBIT | 34.69 | 9.16 | 0.45 | 119.97 | 57.14 |
| EV/EBITDA | 30.24 | 7.65 | 0.35 | 104.51 | 43.78 |
| P/FCF | 5.83 | 2.99 | 2.47 | 12.02 | 5.37 |
| P/FFO | 19.48 | 14.40 | 2.74 | 39.29 | 14.55 |
| P/TBV | 1.58 | 1.46 | 0.81 | 3.62 | 0.95 |
| P/AFFO | 40.08 | 36.39 | 3.47 | 86.81 | 29.84 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.41 | 1.32 | 0.76 | 2.90 | 0.72 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.54 | 1.58 | 0.72 | 2.75 | 0.72 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates LC's fair value at $23.76 vs the current price of $17.06, implying +39.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $23.76 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.97 (P10) to $37.79 (P90), with a median of $25.63.
LC's current P/E of 14.8x compares to the industry median of 15.9x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -6.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 42.8x over 5 years. Signal: Fair Value.
29 analysts cover LC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $22.75 (range: $22.50 — $23.00), implying +33.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (10), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for LC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.