MODEL VERDICT
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $27.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $29.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $30.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $38.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $49.12 | Below threshold | -20.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 41 industry peers | $5.03 | -81.5% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 44 industry peers | $11.32 | -58.4% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 42 bank peers | $9.13 | -66.5% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 39 industry peers | $5.26 | -80.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 41 analyst estimates | $17.77 | -34.7% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $24.42 | -10.3% | 100% | 75 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 51× | 56× | 61× (Current) | 66× | 71× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $24 | $27 | $29 | $31 | $34 |
| Conservative (9%) | $25 | $28 | $30 | $32 | $35 |
| Base Case (14.4%) | $26 | $29 | $31 | $34 | $37 |
| Bull Case (19%) | $27 | $30 | $33 | $35 | $38 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 126.72 | 105.80 | 97.18 | 177.17 | 43.91 |
| EV/EBITDA | 101.40 | 100.09 | 94.96 | 109.14 | 7.18 |
| P/FCF | 76.59 | 93.57 | 29.69 | 106.49 | 41.12 |
| P/FFO | 130.29 | 130.10 | 100.28 | 160.50 | 30.11 |
| P/TBV | 7.97 | 6.29 | 1.86 | 19.91 | 6.46 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.16 | 5.64 | 1.63 | 17.77 | 5.71 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.95 | 5.46 | 1.28 | 16.87 | 5.36 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates UPST's fair value at $24.42 vs the current price of $27.23, implying -10.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $24.42 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $17.96 (P10) to $36.20 (P90), with a median of $26.50.
UPST's current P/E of 60.5x compares to the industry median of 11.2x (41 peers in the group). This represents a +441.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 126.7x over 3 years. Signal: High Premium.
22 analysts cover UPST with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $45.17 (range: $30.00 — $56.00), implying +65.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (11), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for UPST.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.