MODEL VERDICT
Legacy Housing Corporation (LEGH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $21.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $21.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $21.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $20.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $21.10 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $28.86 | +33.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $21.79 | +0.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $16.16 | -25.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $20.84 | -3.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $18.09 | -16.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $10.64 | -50.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $9.50 | -56.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $19.63 | -9.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $20.37 | -5.8% | 100% | 88 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.86 | 10.79 | 6.92 | 14.10 | 2.58 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.85 | 8.74 | 5.71 | 11.38 | 2.04 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.22 | 9.63 | 5.91 | 11.22 | 1.93 |
| P/FFO | 10.51 | 10.44 | 6.74 | 13.62 | 2.47 |
| P/TBV | 1.45 | 1.41 | 0.89 | 2.08 | 0.40 |
| P/AFFO | 11.92 | 12.16 | 7.13 | 15.85 | 3.11 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.44 | 1.41 | 0.88 | 2.08 | 0.40 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.70 | 2.83 | 1.83 | 3.34 | 0.69 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates LEGH's fair value at $20.37 vs the current price of $21.62, implying -5.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 88/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $20.37 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $18.71 (P10) to $23.52 (P90), with a median of $21.06.
LEGH's current P/E of N/Ax compares to the industry median of 13.3x (6 peers in the group). This represents a N/A discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.9x over 6 years. Signal: N/A.
6 analysts cover LEGH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $29.50 (range: $25.00 — $34.00), implying +36.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 88/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for LEGH.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.