MODEL VERDICT
Champion Homes, Inc. (SKY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $76.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $82.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $81.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $75.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $79.12 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $53.10 | -30.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $54.30 | -29.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $42.60 | -44.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $44.62 | -42.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $47.89 | -37.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $64.45 | -16.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $71.08 | -7.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $70.43 | -8.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $53.61 | -30.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $40.74 | -47.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $44.70 | -41.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $60.14 | -21.8% | 100% | 87 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (11%) | $68 | $76 | $83 | $91 | $99 |
| Conservative (18%) | $73 | $81 | $89 | $97 | $105 |
| Base Case (27.4%) | $78 | $87 | $96 | $105 | $113 |
| Bull Case (37%) | $84 | $94 | $103 | $112 | $122 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.09 | 23.26 | 7.36 | 31.08 | 8.72 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.27 | 15.51 | 4.14 | 19.11 | 5.70 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.11 | 13.88 | 4.07 | 18.69 | 5.15 |
| P/FCF | 20.01 | 23.50 | 8.12 | 29.33 | 8.23 |
| P/FFO | 18.20 | 19.12 | 6.90 | 23.71 | 6.28 |
| P/TBV | 5.19 | 4.56 | 2.98 | 7.78 | 1.69 |
| P/AFFO | 22.51 | 22.84 | 7.86 | 33.46 | 9.23 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.29 | 3.10 | 1.91 | 5.48 | 1.15 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.50 | 1.31 | 0.58 | 2.13 | 0.59 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates SKY's fair value at $60.14 vs the current price of $76.90, implying -21.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $60.14 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $51.99 (P10) to $64.27 (P90), with a median of $58.09.
SKY's current P/E of 22.5x compares to the industry median of 12.5x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +80.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.1x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
8 analysts cover SKY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $106.00 (range: $101.00 — $111.00), implying +37.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: SKY trades at the 8420th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (22.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SKY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (9.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1890.0% to approximately $91. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.