MODEL VERDICT
Labcorp Holdings Inc. (LH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $255.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $263.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $270.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $266.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $260.93 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $267.16 | +4.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $250.96 | -1.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $225.60 | -11.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $246.91 | -3.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $318.53 | +24.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $229.29 | -10.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $467.84 | +82.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $492.76 | +92.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $226.04 | -11.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $257.99 | +0.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $242.46 | -5.2% | 100% | 80 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $213 | $235 | $256 | $277 | $299 |
| Conservative (5%) | $220 | $242 | $264 | $286 | $308 |
| Base Case (-8.0%) | $192 | $212 | $231 | $250 | $269 |
| Bull Case (-11%) | $187 | $205 | $224 | $243 | $261 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.65 | 17.38 | 11.01 | 47.65 | 12.87 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.22 | 17.26 | 9.30 | 32.96 | 8.04 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.07 | 12.39 | 6.90 | 19.44 | 4.15 |
| P/FCF | 14.84 | 13.72 | 9.77 | 22.78 | 4.72 |
| P/FFO | 11.82 | 10.20 | 7.20 | 20.00 | 4.37 |
| P/AFFO | 17.43 | 13.89 | 8.57 | 36.76 | 9.66 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.21 | 2.40 | 1.81 | 2.56 | 0.34 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.52 | 1.51 | 1.23 | 2.00 | 0.26 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates LH's fair value at $242.46 vs the current price of $255.84, implying -5.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $242.46 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $226.17 (P10) to $295.86 (P90), with a median of $260.52.
LH's current P/E of 24.5x compares to the industry median of 21.6x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +13.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.6x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
35 analysts cover LH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $311.33 (range: $300.00 — $334.00), implying +21.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (26), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: LH trades at the 2500th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (21.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (8.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1890.0% to approximately $304. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.